Super Saver goes for immortality - by Brobury Sports

Super Saver emerged from the mud at the Kentucky Derby and is now the slim favorite heading into Saturday’s 135th running of the Preakness Stakes. Here’s the latest from BroburySports.com.

You can also enter our famous $1 Million Triple Crown Challenge that is still alive after the Derby. This comes with a guaranteed $10,000 Prize Pool.

Super Saver (+250) is a legitimate speed horse, but lost his first two races as a three-year-old (Tampa Bay Derby, Arkansas Derby). He was ridden to perfection by Calvin Borel in the Kentucky Derby, the jockey’s third Derby win in four years.

Lookin at Lucky is the second favorite at +300. He finished sixth at the Kentucky Derby after being the +200 favorite (Super Saver was +1200).

Lookin at Lucky is a California based horse and thus has made his mark on synthetic surfaces. He did get a dirt win at Arkansas’ Rebel Stakes in March, and would have had a better showing at the Derby if not for some bad luck. The horse drew the first post position and also had to deal with heavy traffic.

Paddy OPrado (+450) is the last of the ‘Big 3’ favorites. He finished third at the Derby after rallying past other tired horses. A lot of the professional handicappers believe he is overvalued at these odds.

Brobury has also raised the bar by offering several props. There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and the odds are -900 that it won’t happen again. Conversely, a Triple Crown win by Super Saver will pay +500.

Those who pay close attention to ‘margin of victory’ will love the next prop. A win of 1 to 2 3/4 lengths is the ‘chalk’ at +300. A win from 6 to 7 3/4 lengths pays at serious +1000 odds.

Finally, pay attention to the winning saddle cloth number as ‘Even’ and ‘Odd’ are both -115.

Preakness Stakes Odds

Super Saver (+250)

Lookin at Lucky (+300)

Paddy OPrado (+450)

Caracortado (+900)

Dublin (+1000)

Jackson Bend (+1200)

Schoolyard Dreams (+1200)

Aikenite (+2000)

First Dude (+2000)

Pleasant Prince (+2000)

Northern Giant (+2800)

Yawanna Twist (+2800)

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Where Is Everyone - by Brobury Sports

With the 2010 Preakness Stakes just 3 days away, it is somewhat surprising at the little amount of activity at Pimlico. In fact, as of this morning, only 2 of the 12 horses slated to race have arrived; Wayne Lukas’ Dublin and Northern Giant. Most, if not all are expected to arrive by late Thursday morning and undergo some final preparations at the track.before Saturday’s race.

The biggest news of the day however is the narrowing of the field from 14 down to 12 with the news that Todd Pletcher’s Mission Impazible and John Sadler’s Hurricane Ike. Hurrican Ike was pulled due to an unspecified leg injury but his absence is expected to have little or no impact on the race as he wasn’t expected to contend. It is believed that Ike reaggravated a previous ailment. Mission Impazible on the other hand had semi-high hopes before a disappointing ninth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby. This leaves only two Pletcher horses in the field, Super Saver and Aikenite, who finished 2^nd in the April 24 Derby Trial. When reached for comment, Pletcher said, "We were on the fence with him and never had fully committed to going. We wanted to see how he trained and felt like at the end of the day that he needed a little more time."

If anything else, the dropouts make less of a minefield for Derby winner Super Saver to navigate in his quest for the Triple Crown. Super Saver is slated to arrive late this evening to begin final preparations. For those looking to use the Derby result as a type of guide for the Preakness, think again, as eight of the twelve horses did not run at Churchill Downs.

As reported yesterday, Bob Baffert made the curious move of lifting experienced jockey Garret Gomez in favor of 25-year old Martin Garcia who has never before run the Preakness. When pressed on why he made the switch, Baffert sung Garcia’s praises, stating, "He's still young. He's not a completely polished rider like a Gomez or (John) Velazquez, but he's getting there. He's got a ways to go. He's a raw talent and he's riding with a lot of confidence right now. He rode in the Derby (aboard Conveyance, who finished 15th) and he was a little bit nervous, but he did as good as he could under the circumstances. If he was a basketball player, he would have gone to the NBA right out of high school. He's got that kind of raw talent."

Should that belief prove to be misguided, Lookin at Lucky could be lookin’ at another disappointment, especially considering that he already will not be running at the Belmont Stakes.

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Preakness Stakes Fact Sheet - by Brobury Sports

Preakness Stakes

Location Pimlico Race Course,

Baltimore, Maryland

Inaugurated - 1873

Race type - Thoroughbred

Distance - 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs)

Track - Dirt, Left-handed

Qualification - 3-year-old

Weight - Colt/Gelding: 126 lb (57.2 kg)

Filly: 121 lb (54.9 kg)

Purse - US$1.1 million

Fastest Time

Set by Tank's Prospect in 1985 and equaled by Louis Quatorze in 1996 and Curlin in 2007, the time record for the current 1-3/16 miles (1.91?km) Preakness is 1:53 2/5 seconds. (Secretariat, the 1973 winner, was also credited with running 1:53 2/5 by the Daily Racing Form. However, the timer malfunctioned during that race, and Pimlico Race Course does not recognize that time, instead assigning Secretariat a time of 1:54 2/5.) The record victory margin is 11½ lengths, by Smarty Jones in 2004.

Jockeys with Most Derby Wins

6 - Eddie Arcaro (1941, 1948, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1957)

5 - Pat Day (1985, 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996)

3 - George Barbee (1873, 1876, 1883)

3 - Bill Hartack (1956, 1964, 1969)

3 - Lloyd Hughes (1875, 1879, 1880)

Most Trainer Wins

7 - R. Wyndham Walden (1875, 1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1888)

5 - Thomas J. Healey (1901, 1922, 1923, 1926, 1929)

5 - D. Wayne Lukas (1980, 1985, 1994, 1995, 1999)

4 - Jim Fitzsimmons (1930, 1935, 1955, 1957)

4 - Jimmy Jones (1947, 1948, 1956, 1958)

4 - Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2001, 2002)

3 - John Whalen (1907, 1911, 1913)

Winningest Owners

7 - Calumet Farm (1941, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1956, 1958, 1968) (also the leading breeder with 7)

5 - George L. Lorillard (1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882)

4 - Harry P. Whitney (1908, 1921, 1927, 1928)

Filly History

Five fillies have won the Preakness in 134 races:

1903 - Flocarline

1906 - Whimsical

1915 - Rhine Maiden

1924 - Nellie Morse

2009 - Rachel Alexandra

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Super Saver Appears Ready - by Brobury Sports

Last year, jockey Calvin Borel was the winning jockey aboard filly Rachel Alexandra at the Preakness Stakes, and judging by his words, he fully expects to ride Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver to the winner’s circle on Saturday, moving one step closer to the elusive Triple Crown.

Yesterday afternoon, Borel worked out the prized colt at Churchill Downs and the results were impressive; Super Saver ran 3 furlongs in :36.60 and 5 furlongs in 1:02. These results were encouraging to both Borel and the horse’s trainer, Todd Pletcher who is looking for his first ever win at Pimlico.

When reached for comment after the workout, Pletcher said “I was very pleased with the work. We are very encouraged by what we've seen since the Derby from him. Everything is good." Bettors looking for something close to a sure thing are no doubt encouraged by the confidence coming from the Super Saver camp. He went on to rave about the horse’s special qualities, saying "He is pretty unique. He is very athletic, a good mover and very efficient."

The team is expected to move to Pimlico on Wednesday and familiarize the horse with the track on Thursday and Friday.

Borel was rather technical is his own assessment of the workout, “It was real good, just what we wanted. He switched leads on key - we've been working on that a little bit. It was perfect. You couldn't ask for better, I don't think."

It should be noted that Pletcher is not putting all of his eggs in Super Saver’s basket, as he will also enter another of his Derby entrants, Mission Impazible, as well as Aikenite.

The quest for a Preakness win ill also have some other major roadblocks as original Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky will also be running, this time with Martin Garcia at the helm instead of Garrett Gomez.

Expect other developments as the Preakness draws closer.

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Borel Boldly Guarantees Victory - by Brobury Sports

As the Preakness approaches just over a week away, the excitement is building as the racing world wonders if Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, has what it takes to become horse racing first Triple Crown winner in decades. If you ask his jockey, Calvin Borel, he would respond with a resounding Yes! In fact, Borel is so confident in himself and his horse, that just as New York Jets brash quarterback, Joe Namath, did in 1969, he is guaranteeing a victory at the May 15^th Preakness. Pulling off another win next week would further cement Borel’s place among the greatest jockeys of all time.

A victory would also break trainer Todd Pletcher’s Preakness drought as well. Though his shutout at the Kentucky Derby was more staggering and surprising as he had failed in his 24 previous attempts at Churchill Downs, Pletcher to date is 0 for 4 in the Triple Crown’s second leg and he would love nothing more than to accomplish another 1^st for his resume. Thought of as a premier trainer by his peers, this marks the first time Pletcher has ever even made it to Pimlico with a Triple Crown dream alive. You can be sure that the excitement will keep sleep at a premium for him. He has experienced success at the Belmont Stakes however, winning with Rags to Riches back in 2007. A win here would give him a career Triple Crown at least.

When reached for comment while working out his horses (he is also running Aikenite) on Wednesday, Pletcher said of the Derby win, “"It's the one thing that was missing from our resume. I don't think it necessarily makes me a better trainer. As a trainer in the United States, there are a lot of big races you want to win, but I'm sure all my colleagues would agree the Derby is the one you want the most."

Making the victory even sweeter was that earlier that week he was forced to withdraw what many felt was his strongest horse, Eskendereya, from the Derby due to injury.With that monkey off his back, and no more need for self-validation, he is now free to attempt to make history, a feat that Calvin Borel would tell you, is but a foregone conclusion.

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Ice Box Bows Out - by Brobury Sports

There I was, watching the 2010 Kentucky Derby with millions of others as it looked as though my 4-10 Exacta Box was about to make me a winner for the day. I could almost count my money as all of a sudden a streak of brown darted across my HD TV screen from left to right. Upon closer inspection, it was the number 2 horse, Ice Box, who up until now, was nowhere to be found among the leaders, much less my betting slip. My winning hopes were dashed as he raced for a come-from-behind, second place finish. In fact, had the race been just 10 meters longer, he might have even won the race.

Now this morning we find out that Super Saver’s bid for the elusive Triple Crown may have received a serious boost with the news that Ice Box’s trainer, Nick Zito has pulled him from running in the Preakness Stakes. For me, the decision to hold him out comes about a week too late. Zito also indicated he may also withdraw another of his Derby horses, Jackson Bend.

Zito’s official statement was as follows:

"After talking to (owner) Mr. (Bob) LaPenta we concurred that Ice Box's race was tremendous, but we also knew it was a tough race. We feel that we are better suited to wait and pass the Preakness and possibly go on to the Belmont (June 5) and, hopefully, things work out."

Racing fans will be excited to know that Super Saver’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, who captured his first Derby win after 24 failed attempts last Saturday has zero intention of not running Super Saver at the Preakness. In his official statement when asked about Super Saver, Pletcher said "He came out of it really well. Actually, I was surprised how good he came out of it. His energy level was very good. His appetite has been very good. He seems to have taken the race really well. It's always a concern when you run back on short rest off a peak effort. But the signs that we're seeing are very positive that he's come out of it in as good of shape as we could hope for."

At present time, other race probables include:

Paddy O'Prado
First Dude
Hurricane Ike
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Schoolyard Dreams
Caracortado
Pleasant Prince
A Little Warm

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Payoffs Widely Differ in Triple Crown Events - by Greg Melikov

When it comes to big winning mutuels in Triple Crown events, the Kentucky Derby has returned double-digit payoffs five times the past decade, the same number as the Belmont Stakes.

Last year, Mine That Bird rewarded backers with $103.20 on the front end, the second highest payday in Kentucky Derby history. Four years earlier, Giacomo returned $102.60. The record was set back in ’13 when Donerail paid a whopping $184.90.

But winners of the Preakness have returned much less over the years. During the past decade there were only two double-digits payoffs. And the longest shot to triumph in 134 renewals was Master Derby in ’75 -- $48.05.

Betting angles this time of year are as plentiful as April showers, which according to the old song, bring May flowers. In this case, April planning may bring horseplayers fatter wallets on May 1.

One thing is certain at Louisville -- full fields ensure healthy returns across the board, especially when it comes to exotic wagers. Nineteen 3-year-olds ran in ’09 and 20, the limit allowed, in ’08.

From a betting standpoint, if 20 horses line up for the 136^th Derby that will provide about three times as many exacta combinations as in a 12-horse field. When it comes to trifectas, the number jumps to five times more and superfecta combos multiply a generous 10 times.

From ’92 to ’07, the Run for the Roses averaged more than 17 runners. There were 18 or more horses entered in 11 of those 16 years, with the lowest, 13, only once.

Looking at favorites during a 17-year span in the ’60s and ’70s, nine top choices scored from Carry Back in ’61 to Seattle Slew in ’77. Derbies averaged less than 13 ½ horses during that time and fields only exceeded 18 twice. There were a dozen runners or fewer five times.

A good foundation is most helpful so look for sophomores that ran at least once as a 2-year-old, had good speed figures and won at a mile or longer. Those with at least one stakes victory no matter how few races they ran during their career do significantly better. And most Derby winners visited the winner’s circle in their last prep.

The norm for the number of preps that have produced winners at Louisville since the mid-1980s has been three or four races.

We all need Lady Luck to smile on us, but she isn’t a reliable compatriot. It’s better to let your handicapping skills be your guide. In the long run, they will reward you more often – in the Triple Crown events, other major stakes or even in claiming contests.

Since the ’90s, several horses that disappointed in the Derby bounced back in the Preakness.

Hansel, ’91, who also won the Belmont; Timber Country, ’95, the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to take a Triple Crown race; Louis Quartose, ’96, who led at every call of the 1 3/16 miles; and Point Given, who also captured the Belmont and several other Grade 1 races for 3-year-olds in 2001 en route to Horse of the Year honors.

However, horses that skip the Derby haven’t done very well in the Preakness the past 25 years. Only three visited the winner’s circle: Rachel Alexandra, last year; Red Bullet, ’00; and Bernardini, ’96.

During a four-year span, three newcomers wore the back-eyed susans: Codex, ’80; Aloma’s Ruler, ’82; and Deputed Testimony, ’83.

The Preakness, staged at seven different distances, has been run at 1 3/16 miles since ’25 when it was extended about 110 yards from 1 1/8 miles.

Horse of the Year Curlin nosed out Derby champ Street Sense in ’07. The winner covered the distance in 1:53 2/5, equaling the fastest Preakness timed recorded by Louis Quatorze in ’96 and Tank’s Prospect in ’85.

Generally, any handicapping formula should include form, class, race conditions and connections. First and foremost, any horse in the Preakness should do the same, plus the necessary morning workouts since the last outing.

For example, 3-year-olds that haven’t raced in more than 30 days should show a work at Pimlico and ample evidence they have a history of performing well off long or short layoffs.

Class is important, but a tricky part of the handicapping puzzle. I believe runners that performed well against first-rate foes in past recent races merit consideration. However, those that benefited from easy pace figures against lesser rivals should send up a red flag.

Race conditions include surfaces and distances. There’s an old saying about the latter: Never bet on a horse trying a distance for the first time.

Obviously, no Preakness runner has gone 1 3/16 miles since that distance is rarely run at American tracks. However, I wouldn’t want to key a horse on top that hadn’t traveled at least 1 1/8 miles. If the runner has been competitive in stakes at routes and the pedigree fits, inclusion in exotic bets shouldn’t be out of the question.

It’s a good idea to visualize how the Preakness will be run: who the frontrunners will be, what contenders will be stalking and which runners have the best chance of closing.

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Triple Crown: Holy Grail of Racing Proves Elusive - by Greg Melikov

A handicapping sage once said: “There’s no single successful horse racing wagering strategy, and that’s a good thing.”

His reasoning: “This means that even for beginning and novice bettors, you can still fair well with your selections as long as you find a strategy that works for you.”

Ah, but what may work for you might not work for me. Strategy for the most part changes depending on the type of race, connections, track conditions, etc. That goes double for Triple Crown events.

It’s a gimme that favorites generally win about a third of the time. But when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it hasn’t held up over the long haul. Frankly, it has been feast or famine depending on the decade.

For example, during the first 10 years of the 21^st Century on the first Saturday in May, favorites won four times. But none scored in the 1980s or ’90s.

In the ’70s, six top choices won ending with Spectacular Bid in ’79. Three victorious horses were Triple Crown winners: Affirmed, ’78, who was not favored; Seattle Slew, ’77; and Secretariat, ’73, both odds-on.

Four top choices scored at Louisville in the ’60s while only two did in the ’50s.

While Derby champs have repeated on four occasions in the Preakness the past decade, favorites in the second leg of the Triple Crown won an astonishing seven times.

There have been 45 thoroughbreds that captured two of the three Triple Crown legs, but only 21 won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

In the past 13 years, seven horses that grabbed the first two legs flirted with immortality before failing to become the 12^th Triple Crown champ: Big Brown, ’08; Smarty Jones, ’04; Funny Cide, ’03; War Emblem, ’02; Charismatic, ’99; Real Quiet, ’98; and Silver Charm, ’97.

Spectacular Bid, the 1-5 favorite in a field of eight, looked unbeatable riding a 12-race winning streak 31 years ago that included seven straight victories as a sophomore.

The son of Bold Bidder, attempting to become the fourth Triple Crown champ during the ’70s, was bumped at the break and fell behind early. By the time he hit the stretch he was in command. Then he weakened down the lane and wound up a disappointing third.

After the race, trainer Doug Delp revealed a safety pin had been found in one of the horse’s hooves the morning of the race. That caused a serious infection and might have contributed to the loss. Meanwhile, the colt was sidelined for a while.

Bob Baffert had three chances to realize every trainer’s dream, but struck out starting in ’97.

Silver Charm fought for the lead several times in the seven-horse field before getting in front of Free House during the drive. Then Touch Gold appeared on the far outside in deep stretch and rocketed to the wire first by three-quarters of a length.

In ’98, Baffert sent out Real Quiet against 10 challengers. Up by four lengths at the eighth pole, he began to shorten stride and bear out, which some experts said would have disqualified him even if Victory Gallop hadn’t got his nose in front.

In ’02, Baffert saddled War Emblem, who also faced 10 rivals. The race was over at the break when the colt stumbled and nearly fell to his knees leaving the gate.

After working his way from fifth to the lead after six furlongs, the son of Our Emblem dropped out of contention at the top of the stretch and ran eighth – the worst finish of any Derby-Preakness winner.

Sarava won and returned the highest Belmont win payoff in history: $142.50 for $2.

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You Should Learn the terms of Racing from ‘A’ to ‘Z’ - by Greg Melikov

Horseplayers must know the language of racing in order to handicap the horses.

For example, it’s helpful to ascertain what kind of trip a thoroughbred enjoyed or endured. For bad trip handicappers, like myself, the “B,” “C” and “S” words are essential:

Bobbled: A bad step at or near the gate in which a horse appears to stumble.

Checked: A runner pulled up by his jockey for an instant because of being cut off or racing in tight quarters.

Steadied: A horse being taken in hand by his rider, usually while in close quarters.

Racing jargon could fill a mini-dictionary and runs the gamut from:

“A”: Acey-deucy -- Uneven stirrups, popularized by Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Arcaro, who rode with his left (inside) iron lower than his right to achieve better balance on turns.

to:

“Z”: Zantac -- Trade name for the drug ranitidine, a medication used to treat ulcers.

So here are other terms that should prove helpful:

Across the board: When you bet a horse to finish first, second and third (win, place and show). You collect on wherever the horse finishes.

Airing: Not running at best speed in a race.

Also-ran: All horses that don’t finish in the money.

Bit – A bar in the horse’s mouth that aids in steering and controlling the animal.

Box: When you bet on all possible combination that horse can finish in exotic wagers.

Chart: A box score of a completed race.

Claiming race: A contest in which a horse can be purchased. If a horse is claimed, the new owner takes ownership after the race. Any money made from the race goes to the previous owner.

Closer: A horse that saves the best for last and typically wins when those in front get into a fast pace and run out of energy.

Exacta: A wager in which the bettor must select the top two finishers in correct order to collect.

Field: All the runners in a particular race.

Hung – A tiring horse that holds position.

In the money: Finishing first, second or third.

Maiden: A horse that has never won a race.

Morning line: What the track’s linesmaker believes the final odds of horses might be based on talent and public perception.

On the muscle: A fit horse; an eager equine pulling on the bit.

On the nose: When you bet only to win.

Overlay: When a horse goes off at a higher price that it should, usually based on past performances.

Past performances: A record of races by horses, how they finished and what happened in the contests.

Photo finish: When two or more horses cross the wire finishing too close to call. A photo is reviewed to see in what order they ran.

Post time: When a race starts.

Quarter pole: It marks one-quarter mile from the finish.

Quinella: Wager in which the first two finishers must be picked in either order.

Rabbit: A speed horse entered to set a fast pace for a stablemate that’s usually a closer.

Rail (horse): Barrier on either side of racing strip; horse that prefer to run next to inside rail.

Rank --When a horse refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling and runs in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.

Refuse: When a horse won’t break from the gate.

Reserved: Held for a particular engagement or race; held off the pace.

Ridden out: Horse that finishes a race under mild urging.

Route: Race distance of a mile or longer,

Run-out bit: Special type of bit to prevent a horse from bearing out (or in).

Saddle cloth (pad): Cotton cloth that goes under the saddle to absorb sweat that usually shows the horse’s program number; piece of felt, sheepskin or foam rubber used as a base for the saddle.

Schooling: Process of familiarizing a horse with the starting gate and teaching racing practices; may also involve being schooled in the paddock.

Scratch: To be taken out of a race before it starts. Trainers usually scratch horses due to adverse health or track conditions while the track veterinarian can do so at any time.

Shadow roll: Usually a sheepskin roll secured over bridge of a horse’s nose to keep animal from seeing shadows on the track and shying away from or jumping them.

Shut off: Unable to improve position due to being surrounded by other horses.

Simulcast: A simultaneous live television transmission of a race to other tracks, off-track betting offices or other outlets for the purpose of wagering.

Sloppy (track): Racing surface saturated with water; with standing water visible.

Soft (track): Condition of a turf course with a large amount of moisture that has horses sinking very deeply into it.

Speed figure: Handicapping tool used to assign a numerical value to a horse’s performance.

Sprint: Short race less than a mile.

Stakes: Race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. Fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse.

Stakes horse: Runner whose level of competition includes mostly stakes races.

Starter race: Allowance or handicap race restricted to horses that have started for a specific claiming price or less.

Starting gate: Partitioned mechanical device having stalls in which horses are confined until the starter releases front doors to begin the race.

State-bred: Horse bred in a particular state and eligible to compete in races restricted to state-breds.

Step up: Horse moving up in class to meet better competition.

Stretch call (runner): Position of horses at eighth pole: horse that runs fastest nearing finish line.

Superfecta: A wager in which the first four finishers must be selected in order to collect.

Taken up: Horse pulled up sharply by rider because of being in close quarters.

Tightener: Race used to give a horse a level of fitness that can’t be obtained through morning exercises alone.

Track bias: Racing surface that favors a particular running style or position.

Track condition: Racing surface that can be described as fast, good, muddy, sloppy, firm, yielding, etc.

Trifecta: A bet that must have the top three finishers in order for a payoff.

Trip: Individual horse’s race with specific reference to difficulty (or lack of difficulty) encountered during competition, whether the horse was repeatedly blocked or had an unobstructed run.

Underlay: Horse racing at shorter odds than seems warranted by past performances.

Under wraps: Runner under stout restraint in a race or workout to prevent pulling away from competition by too large a margin.

V.M.D.: Veterinary medical doctor.

Walkover: Race in which only one horse competes.

Washed out: Horse that becomes so nervous that the animal sweats profusely.

Wheel: Betting all possible combinations in an exotic wager using at least one horse as the key.

Work: To exercise a horse by galloping a pre-determined distance.

Yielding: Condition of a turf course with a great deal of moisture.

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