Triple Crown: Holy Grail of Racing Proves Elusive - by Greg Melikov


A handicapping sage once said: “There’s no single successful horse racing wagering strategy, and that’s a good thing.”
 
His reasoning: “This means that even for beginning and novice bettors, you can still fair well with your selections as long as you find a strategy that works for you.”
 
Ah, but what may work for you might not work for me. Strategy for the most part changes depending on the type of race, connections, track conditions, etc. That goes double for Triple Crown events.
 
It’s a gimme that favorites generally win about a third of the time. But when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it hasn’t held up over the long haul. Frankly, it has been feast or famine depending on the decade.
 
For example, during the first 10 years of the 21st Century on the first Saturday in May, favorites won four times. But none scored in the 1980s or ’90s.
 
In the ’70s, six top choices won ending with Spectacular Bid in ’79. Three victorious horses were Triple Crown winners: Affirmed, ’78, who was not favored; Seattle Slew, ’77; and Secretariat, ’73, both odds-on.
 
Four top choices scored at Louisville in the ’60s while only two did in the ’50s.
 
While Derby champs have repeated on four occasions in the Preakness the past decade, favorites in the second leg of the Triple Crown won an astonishing seven times.
 
There have been 45 thoroughbreds that captured two of the three Triple Crown legs, but only 21 won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
 
In the past 13 years, seven horses that grabbed the first two legs flirted with immortality before failing to become the 12th Triple Crown champ: Big Brown, ’08; Smarty Jones, ’04; Funny Cide, ’03; War Emblem, ’02; Charismatic, ’99; Real Quiet, ’98; and Silver Charm, ’97.
 
Spectacular Bid, the 1-5 favorite in a field of eight, looked unbeatable riding a 12-race winning streak 31 years ago that included seven straight victories as a sophomore.
 
The son of Bold Bidder, attempting to become the fourth Triple Crown champ during the ’70s, was bumped at the break and fell behind early. By the time he hit the stretch he was in command. Then he weakened down the lane and wound up a disappointing third.
 
After the race, trainer Doug Delp revealed a safety pin had been found in one of the horse’s hooves the morning of the race. That caused a serious infection and might have contributed to the loss. Meanwhile, the colt was sidelined for a while.
 
Bob Baffert had three chances to realize every trainer’s dream, but struck out starting in ’97.
 
Silver Charm fought for the lead several times in the seven-horse field before getting in front of Free House during the drive. Then Touch Gold appeared on the far outside in deep stretch and rocketed to the wire first by three-quarters of a length.
 
In ’98, Baffert sent out Real Quiet against 10 challengers. Up by four lengths at the eighth pole, he began to shorten stride and bear out, which some experts said would have disqualified him even if Victory Gallop hadn’t got his nose in front.
 
In ’02, Baffert saddled War Emblem, who also faced 10 rivals. The race was over at the break when the colt stumbled and nearly fell to his knees leaving the gate.
 
After working his way from fifth to the lead after six furlongs, the son of Our Emblem dropped out of contention at the top of the stretch and ran eighth – the worst finish of any Derby-Preakness winner.
 
Sarava won and returned the highest Belmont win payoff in history: $142.50 for $2.

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